San Francisco, Calif.-The Bay Area housing market continued its march toward normalcy in November according to Dataquick. Strong sales and rising sale prices were fueled by increased demand, strained inventory, record-low mortgage rates and robust investor interest.
A total of 7,296 new and resale homes were sold in the nine-county Bay Area last month. That was down 6.4 percent from 7,795 in October, and up 15.5 percent from 6,317 for November 2011.
A drop from October to November is normal for the season. Last month's sales count was the highest for any November since 8,042 homes were sold in 2006. November sales have varied from 5,127 in 2007 to 11,906 in 2004. The average for all months of November since 1988, when DataQuick's statistics start, is 7,873.
John Walsh, President for Dataquick says. "Current trends are likely to stay with us well into spring, at least. One of the variables that could really impact the market would be supply – how many homes are put up for sale. There are still mortgage finance issues. Some loan categories are not active. But right now, low mortgage interest rates make up for that. With the mismatch between supply and demand, there's upward pressure on prices."
The median price paid for a home in the Bay Area was $438,000 last month. That was up 5.3 percent from $416,000 in October and up 20.5 percent from $363,500 in November a year ago. Last month's median was the highest since August 2008, when it was $447,000.
The low point of the current real estate cycle was $290,000 in March 2009. The peak was $665,000 in June/July 2007. Around half of the median's peak-to-trough drop, as well as about half the median's year-over-year increase this November, was the result of a shift in the sales mix. For example, today far fewer lower-cost foreclosures are re-selling compared with a year ago, and there are a lot more homes selling in the more expensive move-up markets.
The number of Bay Area homes sold in November for less than $500,000 decreased 12.7 percent year-over-year while the number sold for more increased 36.0 percent, DataQuick reported.
Last month distressed property sales – the combination of foreclosure resales and "short sales" – made up 35.0 percent of the resale market. That was down from 35.2 percent in October and down from 50.1 percent a year earlier.
Foreclosure resales – homes that had been foreclosed on in the prior 12 months – accounted for 11.5 percent of resales in November, down from a revised 11.7 percent in October, and down from 25.2 percent a year ago. Last month was the lowest since 10.1 percent in November 2007. Foreclosure resales peaked at 52.0 percent in February 2009. The monthly average for foreclosure resales over the past 17 years is about 10 percent.
Short sales – transactions where the sale price fell short of what was owed on the property – made up an estimated 23.0 percent of Bay Area resales last month. That was down from an estimated 23.5 percent in October and down from 24.9 percent a year earlier. While short sales' share of the overall market does not appear to have changed much, the number of short sales in November was about 6 percent higher than a year ago.
Jumbo loans, mortgages above the old conforming limit of $417,000, accounted for 40.1 percent of last month's purchase lending, up from a revised 39.5 percent in October, and up from 29.0 percent a year ago. Jumbo usage dropped to 17.1 percent in January 2009. Before the credit crunch struck in August 2007, jumbos accounted for nearly 60 percent of the Bay Area purchase loan market.
Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs), an important indicator of mortgage availability, accounted for 11.5 percent of the Bay Area's home purchase loans. That was the same as a revised 11.5 percent in October, and down from 12.4 percent in November last year. Since 2000, ARMs have accounted for 49.0 percent of all purchase loans. ARMs hit a low of 3.0 percent of loans in January 2009.
Government-insured FHA home purchase loans, a popular choice among first-time buyers, accounted for 17.0 percent of all Bay Area home purchase mortgages in November, up from 15.8 percent in October and down from 21.0 percent a year earlier.
(chart)
All Homes #Sold #Sold Pct. $Median Median Pct.
Nov-11 Nov-12 Chng Nov-11 Nov-12 Chng
Alameda 1,334 1,525 14.3% $340,000 $415,000 22.1%
Contra Costa 1,225 1,394 13.8% $255,000 $322,000 26.3%
Marin 239 272 13.8% $629,000 $682,000 8.4%
Napa 99 133 34.3% $297,000 $360,000 21.2%
Santa Clara 1,478 1,707 15.5% $452,000 $550,000 21.7%
San Francisco 422 524 24.2% $644,500 $728,000 13.0%
San Mateo 513 612 19.3% $542,500 $618,000 13.9%
Solano 522 584 11.9% $190,000 $221,500 16.6%
Sonoma 485 545 12.4% $285,000 $349,000 22.5%
Bay Area 6,317 7,296 15.5% $363,500 $438,000 20.5%
Source: DataQuick, DQNews.com
