First-term Republican Gov. Scott Walker will win the Wisconsin recall election, CBS News estimates, beating back a labor-backed effort to unseat and again handing defeat to his Democratic challenger, 58-year-old Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett.
The recall fight, prompted by Walker's decision to strip Wisconsin public workers of their collective bargaining rights, has doubled as a proxy fight over whether Republicans can push through spending cuts and confront organized labor - and live to tell about it.
"Wisconsin has given their stamp of approval to Gov. Walker's successful reforms that balanced the budget, put people back to work, and put government back on the side of the people," Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus said Tuesday night.
According to the Center for Public Integrity, candidates and outside groups spent in excess of $63 million on the recall election - an enormous figure that easily breaks the previous record of $37.4 million (set in the 2010 gubernatorial contest) for spending in a Wisconsin election. According to the New York Times, Walker and his Republican allies spent $45.6 million on the race as of May 21, while Barrett and his allies have spent $17.9 million.
Turnout had been expected to exceed 2010 total, with an estimated 2.8 people expected to cast ballots. Reports emerged from Wisconsin Tuesday of robocalls informing voters, falsely, they don't have to vote if they signed the recall petition, among other attempts to depress turnout among Barrett voters using false information. The Walker campaign said in response to the reports that "any accusation that our campaign is making those calls is categorically false and unfounded."
Early CBS News exit polls found that 51 percent of voters in Wisconsin approve of how Walker has handled the issue of collective bargaining, and 52 percent approve of how he has handled job creation. Fifty percent said they approved of the recent changes to state law that limits collective bargaining for government workers, while 48 percent disapproved of these changes.
Fifty-two percent of Wisconsin voters in the early exit polls said they have a favorable view of unions for government workers -- a group that largely backed the recall -- while 43 percent have an unfavorable opinion of these unions.
The early exit polls showed Barrett winning handily among union households, while Walker dominated among Tea Party voters. While independents backed Walker over Barrett by 14 points in 2010, the two are effectively tied among independents this time around. The polls showed Walker winning with men and those making more than $50,000, and Barrett winning among women and those making less than $50,000 per year.
"I think most people are just happy to have the election over," Walker said as he cast his ballot in suburban Milwaukee Tuesday, the Associated Press reported. "I think most voters of the state want to have all the attack ads off. They want to have their TVs back. They want to have their lives back."
Walker, 44, defeated Barrett by nearly six points in the 2010 Wisconsin gubernatorial race.
Walker dominated Barrett in the money race thanks in large part to donors from outside the state. As of campaign filings released on May 29, Walker had raised $30.5 million, with about two-thirds of that total coming from donors outside Wisconsin. Barrett had raised roughly $4 million, with about one-fourth coming from outside the state. Part of the disparity can be explained by the fact that Walker, as a sitting governor facing recall, is not subject to the state's legal limits on campaign contributions under Wisconsin law. Barrett, by contrast, was legally barred from accepting contributions in excess of $10,000 per person.
The rest of the spending in the race has been from outside ideological groups. The Tea Party-linked group Americans for Prosperity alone told CBS News it has spent $10 million on the race since January 2011 on what it says is education over the positive impact of Walker's budget reform efforts.
The effort to recall Walker effectively began last February. That's when the newly-elected governor, who had defeated Barrett in the 2010 election, released a budget plan that proposed elimination of most public employee bargaining rights.
Walker had suggested during his 2010 campaign that he would close the state's $3.6 billion budget shortfall in part through cuts to public employee pensions, but he said nothing about eliminating collective bargaining rights. His announcement in February galvanized many on the left, who began chanting "Recall Walker" at the Wisconsin statehouse as part of massive protests against the plan. Wisconsin Senate Democrats even temporarily fled the state in an ultimately futile effort to keep Walker's plan from being passed.
In January, Walker's opponents submitted more than 900,000 valid signatures to the state to trigger the recall election, far more than the 540,208 needed to do so. Barrett won the Democratic primary last month, beating organized labor's preferred candidate.
Sixty percent of Wisconsin voters said in the early CBS News exit polls that recall elections are only appropriate for official misconduct. Twenty-eight percent said they think they are suitable for any reason, while nine percent think they are never appropriate.
President Obama did not campaign for Barrett, prompting grumbling from some Wisconsin Democrats and labor leaders. Among those who did was former President Bill Clinton, who said a Walker victory would prompt Republicans around the nation to conclude: "We're finally going to break every union in America. We're going to break every government in America. We're going to stop worrying about the middle class. We don't give a rip whether poor people will get to work their way into it. We've got our way now. We've got it all. Divide and conquer works."
Republicans called the race a test of whether they can push through the difficult reforms needed to deal with massive federal, state and local budget deficits.
"In order to make sure that our country doesn't go bankrupt it is very important for Scott Walker to win this election," Virginia Attorney General and gubernatorial candidate Ken Cuccinelli told NPR before the vote.
Mr. Obama won Wisconsin by 14 points in 2008, but the recall fight has Republicans suggesting it may be within reach for presumptive GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney. The early exit polls found that Mr. Obama led Romney 51 percent to 45 percent among voters in the recall election.
In the exit polls, 53 percent of Barrett's supporters say their vote today was mainly for their candidate, while 45 percent say it was against his opponents. Among Walker's supporters, about nine in 10 describe their vote as mainly for Walker -- only 8 percent say their vote was mainly against his opponents.
While Republicans held a major advantage on the airwaves thanks to the massive spending by Walker and his backers, Democrats had a big advantage in organization on the ground, thanks in part to a get-out-the-vote effort backed by organized labor. Walker's victory suggests that the newly-legal unlimited spending by super PACs and other outside groups - which was unleashed by a pair of recent Supreme Court decisions, including Citizens United - can overcome the ground game Democrats have steadily built up around the nation in recent years.
A loss would have effectively ended Walker's political career. His victory will elevate him to superstar status among conservatives and likely prompt talk of a presidential run. It also feeds the notion that the influence of organized labor - which made the governor's defeat a top priority - continues to wane.
While the national discussion of the race has been focused on Walker's controversial budget proposal, the fight between the two candidates has also been about unrelated issues. Walker has run ads against Barrett attacking him over what the Walker campaign says is an increase in violent crime in Milwaukee, while Wisconsin Democrats have attacked Walker with claims that he may be the target of a secret federal and state corruption investigation.
Also facing recall on Tuesday were the state's Republican lieutenant governor, Rebecca Kleefisch, and four Republican state senators. If Democrats successfully recall one of the GOP state senators, they will win a majority in the Wisconsin Senate and be able to block Walker's agenda even if he remains in office.
